Agent

The Config Drifter cohort is 847 Nokia BBU elements in the North cluster. CM audit shows two primary drifts: srPeriodicity at 40ms vs the golden baseline of 20ms (23% of cohort) and prachConfigIndex at 14 vs cluster median 7 (18% of cohort). Both parameters are known to reset during Nokia RAN22.Q4 upgrades when the post-upgrade CM restoration script isn't applied. NHI has declined an average of 4pts/week over 6 weeks. 3 elements have migrated to Persistent Degrader this week.

214 elements flagged for HW EoL within 67 days — all Huawei BTS units, Aging Macro archetype, installed 2015–2016. Current avg NHI 44. No support contract extension confirmed. Additionally, 89 ZTE elements have EoL in 61–90 day window — lower risk as they currently average NHI 61. Procurement escalation recommended for the Huawei cohort before the support window closes.

38 Ericsson eNBs in London South are most at risk — currently 81–84% DL utilisation, week-on-week traffic growth rate +1.2%. At that rate, 23 of the 38 breach 85% threshold within 3–4 weeks. Additionally, 14 Nokia cells in Manchester City Centre are at 79–81% — these breach threshold in approximately 5–6 weeks if growth rate holds. Note: traffic growth projections use a linear model on 8-week history. Seasonal or campaign effects are not modelled.

Estate avg NHI is 63, down 2pts over 8 weeks. The trend is driven by three risks: (1) Config Drifter cohort (847 Nokia cells, NHI declining 4pts/wk) — remediable if CM action taken in the next 2 weeks before further Persistent Degrader migration. (2) Huawei EoL cohort (214 elements, HW EoL in 67 days) — procurement decision required; unmitigated risk if support lapses. (3) London South capacity ceiling (38 Ericsson cells) — customer-facing impact risk within 3–4 weeks if not addressed. If all three are remediated, modelled NHI recovery to 68 within 12 weeks. If none are actioned, modelled NHI decline to 57 within 12 weeks.

Both cohorts are Nokia post-upgrade. The key difference is timing and CM remediation. Post-Upgrade Settling (upgraded 2–4 weeks ago): CM remediation was applied within 1 week of upgrade. NHI dipped to 58, recovered to 61, trending back to 70+ within 3 weeks. Recovery confirmed. Config Drifter (upgraded 6 weeks ago): CM remediation was NOT applied post-upgrade. NHI was 74 at upgrade, now 67 and still declining at 4pts/week. If remediation starts this week, NHI recovery to ~70 projected within 4 weeks based on the Settling cohort as reference. The Settling cohort is the counterfactual proof that the Config Drifter degradation is entirely remediable.